2017 Spencer Comprehensive Land Use Plan

Spencer, Iowa  2017  Comprehensive Plan

Figure 12 - Population Projections, 2020-2050

13,000

▪

■ Census Population ■ 2014 Population Estimate ■ Linear Projection Model ■ Growth Trend Projection Model

12,558

12,466

12,500

12,169

12,000

11,726

11,680

11,500

11,317

11,233 11,206

11,066

11,347

11,271

11,244

11,000

10,969

10,500

10,278

10,000

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010 2014 est.

2020

2030

2040

2050

When analyzing population projections, existing and potential socioeconomic variables are not factored into these results. These projections are based solely on statistical data that quantifiably show population trends, migration patterns and current tax data. The population numbers shown in the table above do not factor economic and sociological forces affecting a community’s growth. Factors that may affect a city’s future population include business expansions or closures, new housing developments, a rise or decrease in unemployment, or the cost of living index. According to the population projections shown on the previous page there are two projection models used for calculating Spencer’s future population growth. One method simply utilizes the percentage of the total county population that Spencer comprised from the last known census. For Spencer, this “linear” method of population projection assumes the community will maintain 67.9 percent of Clay County’s population over the next 35 years. Since the city is maintaining the same percentage of county population in this population projection, the proposed numbers are solely reflected on the future changes in population for Clay County as reflected in the Woods & Poole population projections. The second method of projecting population examines the historical population percentage ratio of Spencer as compared to Clay County. In 1970, the city comprised 55.6% of Clay County’s population. By 2010, this percentage increased to 67.6%. By using the average growth per decade over the last 40 years Spencer should continue to increase its percentage of population in Clay County each decade. With Spencer comprising a larger share of the total Clay County population in the future, the city’s projected population will increase, even though Clay County’s population is predicted to remain stable if not decline slightly.

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NW Iowa Planning & Development